November 04, 2004

Exit Polling Data

Available here, it provides a wealth of information (if it's accurate, I'm still waiting to find out the facts on the early exit poll debacle). Here are a few important stats that the professionals will be chewing over for the next couple of months.

George W Bush carried the senior vote 54%-46%. Social Security reform is a go!

If you earned more than $50k your income group was pro-Bush, the higher you earned, the more this was true.

GWB got about 40% of the union household vote, 38% of the actual union vote. My understanding is that this is historically high for Republicans, you usually get about a third of the union vote.

Kerry continues the odd Democrat party trend on education. Democrats do well with the super-educated and the badly educated while Republican voter education stats look more like the conventional bell shape.

Republicans have pulled even in party ID. If Zogby doesn't go into the tank and change his methodology, he (and all the other pollsters who use party ID screens from the most recent presidential race) should be getting more Republican tilting polling results for the next four years.

There was a 7% point difference between those who think Kerry attacked unfairly (67%) and Bush attacked unfairly (60%).

Surprisingly, Kerry did his best on terrorism among people who were very worried about terrorism (56%-44%) while Bush did best among those who were somewhat worried about it (56%-43%). The somewhat worried group is over twice as large as the very worried group.

Posted by TMLutas at November 4, 2004 02:28 PM